Methodology
Our prediction model uses statistical analysis of historical outbreak data combined with current environmental conditions to provide accurate Southern Pine Beetle outbreak predictions.
Model the Outbreaks
We model the number of infestations, commonly referred to as "spots," rather than modeling the beetles themselves. This approach provides more accurate predictions for forest management.
Statistical Analysis
We use zero-inflated regression models to account for the fact that most locations in most years do not experience outbreaks, providing robust predictions across diverse conditions.
Zero Inflation
Because most locations in most years do not experience an outbreak, a very large number of zeroes occurs in the data. Zero-inflation is designed for precisely this kind of data.
Test Input Variables
Predictions incorporate spring trapping data, previous year outbreak history, climate indices like PDSI, and winter severity to provide comprehensive risk assessments.
